2007 Rotation Possibilities III: The Injured Lefties

For those of you not paying attention, that would be Ramirez and Hampton. To me, they're both big question marks. Hampton had shown signs of being at least league-average again in 2005, but who knows whether he'll be able to do anything after a whole year out? And Ramirez looked to be McDowell's big success story last season, but couldn't stay healthy at all. My gut feeling is that if you put them together, you might get one starter's production. Not a top of the rotation starter, though. Odds are, that won't work out, though, as they're likely to both be hurt or ineffective at the same time....

Here's the bad news. So far, we seem to have an abundance of middle of the rotation guys. And it's pretty much downhill from here, unless you have really high expectations of Davies and James. (I'll cover them next.)

I'll edit this one over the weekend and add stat lines.

Coaching Changes

Well, one coaching change, at least. Fredi Gonzalez jumped at the first job offer he got, taking the Florida Marlins managerial opening. That's a step up, although I'm not sure how much of one. (Manager of completely dysfunctional franchise vs. third base coach of model franchise.)

I suppose it's possible that Terry Pendleton could be gone as well - there are three openings right now, including Washington. It seems likely that Girardi will get one of those openings, but I don't think that Robinson, Alou, or Baker are likely to be hired in any of those places. (Actually, I'm not entirely sure that Robinson or Alou really want to manage again, anyway. I think they'll stay in baseball, but probably in a role with less demands on a day-to-day basis.)

It should be interesting seeing how Bobby Cox fills this opening (or openings). After last season, I'm afraid to guess. Who saw Roger McDowell replacing Leo? Certainly not me...

Update: That didn't take long. Today's AJC(RR) has news of three new coaches, including Brian Snitker and Eddie Perez. Also leaving are Pat Corrales and Bobby Dews.

(And yes, I know there are a lot of people who want to blame Roger for the pitching staff's problems. I'm not one of them. No one could have turned Lance Cormier and Jason Shiell into quality major league starters.)

2007 Rotation Possibilities II: John Smoltz

I could see no possible way that the Braves wouldn't pick up Smoltz's option for 2007, and indeed they have done so. Yes, he's not the pitcher he once was, but they'd need to spend $8 million on someone else if they didn't keep Smoltz. That's less than or equal to what Kris Benson, Livan Hernandez, Kerry Wood, Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, or Randy Johnson made in 2006. Basically, the only pitchers better than Smoltz who make less than him just aren't arbitration eligible yet.

In 2006, the Braves said they were going to try to not ride Smoltz so hard. That didn't work out, since the rest of the rotation was a complete shambles. So he started one more game than in 2005, and pitched 3 2/3 fewer innings. Smoltz seems to have worn out some in September, but before that pitched better than you ever could have expected.

Next year, his production will probably drop a bit more. That's fine; he'll still be a solid #3 starter. As long as someone else steps up and he's not all alone again, John Smoltz will not be the problem with the 2007 rotation.

G  W  L  IP    H  R  ER  HR  BB  K  ERA  WHIP  BAA  
33 14 7 229.2 210 83 78  18  53 169 3.06 1.15 0.243
34 15 9 226.0 215 93 90  23  52 206 3.58 1.18 0.250