Week in review (w/e May 13)

That was a very good week. OK, it didn't end so well, getting blown out by the Pirates. And it did start with a loss. But everything in between was a win. A 5-2 week is very good indeed.

Chuck James had a terrible start on Monday, but then followed it up with an incredible start against the Pirates. Consistency would be nice, though. He's supposed to be the #3 starter, but he's only averaging about 5 1/3 innings a start.

Anthony Lerew, on the other hand, had a great start on Tuesday, which he followed up with a terrible start on Sunday. Either way, though, he's an improvement over what Redman had been providing. Lerew's probably going back to the minors this week, though, as Redman is ready to come off the DL. With luck, Lerew's decent showing will put Redman on a short leash.

Chipper Jones is hurt (big surprise there, right?). It's not his feet, though, so maybe the rest will pay off overall. Smoltz dislocated his pinky, but I'd put the odds of him missing a start near 0%. I just hope the injury doesn't affect his motion, and cause a more serious injury.

Francoeur has cooled off somewhat, but he's still hitting about .300. He hasn't had a walk in over a week, though, which is a cause for concern. Andruw has yet to have a hot streak, which is an even bigger concern. And the expiration date on Pete Orr has obviously passed. It's time to send him back to AAA and bring up Prado.

On the plus side, I'm thrilled to see that Peter Moylan seems to have become a dependable middle reliever. I love to see guys like that succeed. (Incidentally, Pete Orr's another of my favorite fringe-type players. I wish he was better.) I'm not sure who the Braves have playing LF these days, but he's pretty darn good. His uniform says "Harris" on the back, but the only Harris on the roster is a guy named Willie Harris, and he's not any good at all.

Another series win

While it's never good to waste a strong start (this one by Hudson on Saturday), there's no denying that winning two of three games every series is an excellent way to win the division. (In case you're weak in math, that equates to a .667 winning percentage, which would be 108 wins on the season.) OK, so the Braves haven't quite won 2 of 3 every time, but it's close enough.

Anyway, since the Dodgers appear to have given up on Betemit, do you think they'd be willing to trade him back to us? Aybar and Orr for Betemit!

Next up, four against the Padres. Peavy will not pitch in the series, which is a bit of luck for the Braves. (I could see 20 strikeouts for him...) Greg Maddux against John Smoltz on Wednesday night ought to be a really good game, or at least a good story. And it'll be interesting to see who takes the mound for the Braves tomorrow night. MLB.com says it's likely to be the Vulture. Yahoo sports says it'll be Kevin Barry. It could also be Anthony Lerew (who's apparently straigtened things out in AAA this year, and will probably end up making some starts in the majors before the summer's out.

Not really a season "preview" as such, part one

J:
Well, I guess we should consider doing a season preview thing for the blog. It's pretty much traditional, right? But let's try something a little bit different. You had mentioned trying to do some back-and-forth stuff like Rob and Rany do, but we obviously haven't gotten around to that yet. So how about if we try the preview that way? We could try taking turns on players on the 25-man roster (plus, I suppose the guys on the DL)... One makes a comment, the other responds, then picks the next guy to discuss. Since I'm proposing this, I can start.
Chipper Jones:
I think I've seen the usual articles about how "this year he's going to be healthy again and play 150 games". I don't believe it, unfortunately. I think his body's just not going to let him play more than 120 games a season any more. It's possible that could change if he moved to first base, but who knows? And he doesn't seem interested in moving, so we'll probably never know. In any case, he's played 109 and 110 games the past two seasons. His rate stats have stayed in line with his career averages, but the decreased playing time means that his counting stats are down. I see no real reason to expect that to change. So we can look forward to 110-120 games, a .300 batting average, .550 slugging percentage, and about 25 home runs.

byrd:
I view Chipper the same way I had been viewing Hampton this year, as someone not to count on (note: this was written after Hampton went down for the season, but the sentiment developed over the last 2 years). It's like having a dad who's always on business trips. Sure, having him home is great; he hangs out with you, takes you to baseball games, grills some streaks, your general quality of life is better. But, you know in the back of your mind that you only get to have him for a short period of time. Something will probably take him away next week. If Chipper is able to stick around the whole year, he could help this team run away with a division crown. He's not as streaky as Andruw, who can carry the team offensively for a month, and usually does, but he gives the team a much better chance to win every night that he's in the lineup. A player who doesn't help you win every night, just every fifth night, is Kyle Davies, the pitcher who seeks to replace Hampton and Cormier long term. Like probably every other Braves fan, I remember his game against Boston on Friday night two years ago, and remember thinking that we might finally have another good homegrown pitcher. I still have high hopes for him, in a way that I never did for Terrell Wade. I've heard he thinks too much, and that holds him back, but that seems like a lesser issue than being crappy, like Mark Redman.

J:
I'm less excited about Kyle Davies than you are, I guess. I think he's a good bet to be a back-of-the-rotation level starter, but I'm not holding my breath for him to turn into an ace. He still has too much trouble with control, plus he tends to give up too many home runs. I'd love to be surprised. On the other hand, if he can be a solid #3 or #4 for the team this year, that would be a step up for him.

Since you brought him up, I guess I'll move on to Mr. Redman. I think "crappy" may be a bit of an overstatement, but only a bit. On the other hand, ChadBradfordWannabee thinks that his arm action is terrible. In any case, I think that his first start is probably the best that can be expected from Mark Redman. He'll keep the Braves in about half the games he pitches, probably. He's not likely to win any games 1-0 though. As rotation filler, he's not bad. And maybe the Braves catch lightning in a bottle again. Do you remember John Burkett?
Feel free to respond on Redman, but I'm guessing that you've already covered him as much as you really want to. So let me also bring up Scott Thorman. A lot of people seem to think he's going to be a stud first baseman. I'm not thinking that's too likely. His career OPS in the minors is 794. If he puts up the same number in the majors (a big if), that's Shawn Green v.2006 territory. Not completely awful, but certainly not "stud 1B" either.

byrd:
It's been a little while since you wrote that rubbish about Redman, so maybe you've come around to my way of thinking by now. I hope to not see him start another game, but I’ve felt that way for a while now, so I have little faith that a reprieve is in sight. I certainly remember John Burkett, and Redman is no John Burkett. I know very little about Thorman. I'm glad you're digging up these numbers, because there's no way I would. I deal in conjecture and assertions, emotion and eloquence (though that is up for discussion). I haven't seen him bat, because I haven't seen a single inning of Braves baseball yet this year on TV, but I hear that he's big, and a little old. I was a big LaRoche fan, as you may remember, and didn't want to see him leave. I don't like trading everyday players for relievers. Maybe that's the longtime Braves fan in me talking, but I think that counting on performance from a reliever is like counting on my omelettes to fold properly. I can gather the best ingredients in the world, but I won't know how it's going to turn out until I get them in the pan. . . Too much?Of course, last year all of the eggs were rotten, so maybe a major change was needed, if only to imbue the team with a greater confidence.Speaking of confidence, there are a few Braves players I have the utmost confidence in. McCann. I have never looked forward to someone's career with as much excitement as I look forward to his. There is no ceiling in my mind. I first started reading stats in the newspaper when Chipper came up. Before that I just watched the games and listened to them on the radio. Chipper was the first player who I watched in the box score every day, so you could say he was my first baseball hero, but I was never as excited about him as I am McCann.Andruw. I expect him to carry us for a month or two at some point, as he and Chipper move up the list of teammates who have homered back-to-back.Kelly Johnson. I won't claim him for myself, but he deserves to be someone's favorite player. The Braves have needed someone like him for a long time now, it seems, someone at the top of the order who isn't scared to see a pitch, and will stay out of Furcal-like slumps due to his ability to draw a walk.

J:
I’ll answer your last few here, and then post this as part one. Eventually, maybe we’ll get some more done… Oh, and I have changed my mind on Redman, sort of. At the very least, I don’t want to watch him pitch. He’s too frustrating. It’s like watching Horacio Ramirez, except without the hope – faint as it might be – that maybe, just maybe, he’ll figure it out. At least he’s on the DL for now…
If Brian McCann can just stop getting banged up, he’ll be the best player on the team. He’s young, he’s generally a consistent performer, and he plays a premium defensive position. What’s not to like?
I agree with you 100% on Andruw. Someone over at BravesJournal (I think it was Mac) pointed out that while Andruw is tremendously streaky during the season, he’s also amazingly consistent from season to season. I’m hoping that the recent Smoltz extension is a sign that Liberty is going to up the budget, and that maybe Andruw won’t be gone next year.
And I may end up being the one who makes Johnson their favorite player. I can’t imagine that he’s going to continue to put up the numbers he has so far (no way can he keep an OBP near .500, can he?), but I think something along the lines of 300/400/500 is certainly not impossible.