A Quick Post

Unlike the Braves' postseason hopes, I'm not dead - despite the lack of posts in almost two weeks. How did that happen? Real Life has gotten too busy lately....

I've got a second "2007 Rotation Possibilities" post (on John Smoltz) mostly written; I will try to get that up by the weekend.

While I've been silent, the Braves picked up Smoltz's option and signed Wickman for 2007. I like both of these moves. $8 million for Smoltz (even late-career Smoltz) is a bargain. And while Wickman's not the long-term answer at closer, I don't see anyone else on the roster ready to take the job just yet. (I think either Devine, Startup, or Boyer is the likely closer in 2008, but I don't think any of them will be ready for the job in 2007.)

End of an era

It's been obvious for a while (since July or so, I'd say), but now it's official. The Braves string of division titles (either 14 or 11, depending on how you feel about 1994) is over. Note that however you count it, no other team has matched it in any major sport. Currently, only the Yankees are even within striking distance of the record, and they'll need to win either two more or five more in a row. Something tells me a lot of people will start counting the 91-93 divisions if the Yankees win next season....

Anyway, congratulations to the Mets and their fans.

Interestingly enough, the internet has made it easier for me to deal with the disappointment of not winning. Thanks to my time spent on various baseball websites (listed in the links to the right), I know people all over the world who are fans of other teams. So, when the Braves lose the division to the Mets, I know that Sam M. and Chris Dial are enjoying it. When the White Sox won the World Series last year, I knew that Vince was happy. When the Red Sox won, chris p and Phil Coorey were overjoyed. When the Astros beat the Braves last season, I knew baseball chick (that's what she goes by, really!) was having a great time.

And I know that they'll be happy for me and byrd (and Mac, and Sam H, and...) when the Braves win it all again, whenever that may be.

2007 Rotation Possibilities I: Tim Hudson

While a lot of fans would like to see him traded, it seems unlikely. His value has never been lower; even if the Braves wanted to trade him, it's unlikely that they could get anything of value for him.

Here's his line the past three seasons (stats from Yahoo!):

G  W  L  IP    H   R   ER  HR BB K   ERA  WHIP BAA    
27 12 6  188.2 194 82  74  8  44 103 3.53 1.26 .267   
29 14 9  192.0 194 79  75  20 65 115 3.52 1.35 .265   
31 12 10 195.0 210 116 105 22 68 123 4.85 1.43 .272

That's not a good progression. The season before the Braves traded for him, he looks OK. Since then, his walks have gone up (as have his strikeouts). Even worse, he's having a lot of trouble keeping the ball in the park. Looking at the stat line, he looks hit-unlucky this season, but watching him doesn't really seem to back that up. He's giving up a lot of hard hit balls, not so much the dribblers.

So, given that Hudson won't be traded, and that he's not likely to decide to retire, he's in the rotation next season. I'm not convinced that he's entirely healthy. But if he's not healthy, his medical history would point towards problems in his torso. That's where his injury history is. And those sorts of injuries are hard to treat effectively, and difficult to rehab from. You try not using your back muscles, or you abdominals. Good luck with that, and let me know how it works out for you.

If that is Hudson's problem, his 2006 season is probably about what we'll see in 2007. That's back-of-the-rotation material. Too bad he's being paid to be an ace. I can't see much chance of him becoming an ace again. Leo couldn't do it; McDowell couldn't do it. Maybe Dr. Frankenstein could do something for him?

Playing Out The String

This is something I haven't experienced for a long time as a Braves fan. In fact, there are probably a lot of Braves fans out there who have never experienced it. But it's true; the Braves aren't going to the playoffs, and therefore these games don't really "matter".

Fortunately, the Cubs are well past the point of playing out the string, and aren't even bothering to show up any more. How else do you explain Cormier striking out 10 batters? I think that was the Columbus Little League team in the Cubs uniforms last night.

Anyway, in an ideal world, the Braves would use the last few weeks to see what some of their younger players are capable of. The thing is, they already know, for the most part. I guess I'd like to see them give Pena about half the starts behind the plate to see if he can be McCann's caddy next season. (McCann's not going to win the batting title, so let's make minimize his chances to get hurt.) Maybe see if Prado can handle SS defensively, by giving him a start or two there.

All things considered, I may begin my look ahead to the offseason a little earlier than I planned.

Putting things in perspective

The Braves could only manage a split of the four game series in Philadelphia, effectively ending whatever small chance they had of making the postseason. With 26 games remaining, they're five games out, and in seventh place. This is basically where they've been for weeks; there's no evidence of a forthcoming push.

Of course, all that pales in comparison to the news that Marcus Giles may have a malfunctioning heart valve. While it sounds like it's a relatively easy thing for the doctors to fix, no surgery is truly "routine". And this is inside the heart we're talking about, so I would think the procedure would require that his heart actually be stopped in order to perform the procedure. I don't know about you, but that would scare the heck out of me.

Next up, three games at the Mets. A sweep might be a sign of good things to come, but I'm thinking we win one of the three.

Why do we need Daryle Ward?

What does he add to this team that Scott Thorman doesn't? The good news is, at least all that he cost was an injured pitcher. And he's a free agent at the end of the season, so he's not blocking anyone next year.

So, I guess it's not a big deal. Unless, of course, he gets a new contract. Then I'll be upset.

To quickly recap the San Francisco series: Offense good, bullpen bad, starting pitching so-so. John Smoltz had a bad outing, but Hudson's was OK, and James's was very good. But winning two out of three is still not good enough. And there's this: of the teams that Atlanta's trying to catch in the wild card race, only Cincinatti has a worse record over the past ten games. That's not making up ground.

The first game of the Philadelphia series has been called on account of tropical storm, and the second (and third) may be as well. We'll see whether Villarreal gets skipped due to this or not. I'd think that if anyone will be skipped, it would be Cormier. Or we could see back-to-back doubleheaders, since both teams are in the playoff chase.